With the beginning of the new quarter, as always we are delighted to present our compact outlook on the upcoming security developments around the world. Our risk analysts have selected the most interesting security-related topics for the security of your travels and business activities around the world, sorted by world region for your convenience.

Middle East and North Africa

In Iraq, the risk of violent protests and terrorist attacks is set to increase in connection with the parliamentary elections of 12 May. Along the Iraqi-Turkish border, where the Iraqi central army has rebuilt its presence, an intensification of military operations against Kurdish militants is probable. A heightened risk of terrorism is also expected ahead of the repeatedly postponed parliamentary elections in Lebanon on 06 May. In Saudi Arabia, besides intensified rocket attacks from Yemen, security-relevant reactions to the ongoing political purge are possible during the coming months.

Sub-Saharan Africa

In Gabon, in the light of the escalation that followed the disputed presidential election of 2016, the risk of violent street protests and riots will increase in the context of the parliamentary elections on 28 April. A controversial referendum regarding changes to the constitution of Burundi, which would allow President Pierre Nkurunziza to remain in office for additional terms, could trigger a new spiral of violence. South Africa still faces the question of whether the water supply of Cape Town may break down, which could also lead to a deterioration of the security situation in the metropolis.

Asia & Pacific

A smooth election process is expected in the local and gubernatorial elections in numerous key provinces of Indonesia on 27 June; however, several controversial legislative projects of the past months could trigger new mass protests. After a constitutional crisis in Timor-Leste, there is an increased risk of political instability in the context of the early parliamentary elections on 12 May. The next quarter will also show whether the situation on the Korean Peninsula can be calmed lastingly with a meeting in May between the previously highly antagonistic Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, in spite of joint military exercises of the USA and South Korea in April.

Europe & CIS

The tensions between the central government of Spain and Catalonia have gained new momentum with several arrests of prominent independence proponents, possibly rekindling the Catalonian crisis after a period of relative calm. Germany will face a continued and potentially increasing risk of attacks committed by Kurdish and leftist groups against Turkish cultural institutions, mosques and businesses associated with the Turkish offensive in Syria. The poisoning of a former spy in England and the unified response of the United Kingdom and several EU countries of expelling Russian diplomats have paved the way for a new cold war in the West’s relations with Russia.

Americas

The presidential election in Colombia on 17 June will be decisive for the future of the ailing implementation of peace with the FARC and the stalled negotiations with the ELN. Amid the deteriorated security situation in Mexico, the country will likely see a further rise in violence in the run-up to the general elections on 01 July, possibly accompanied by public protests against corruption in the entire political landscape. The rescheduled and highly controversial presidential election in Venezuela will take place in May. With the main opposition alliance boycotting the vote, violent protests are possible, while the mass exodus from the country continues.


Recommendations for Corporations

In light of the security-related challenges in all world regions, our product lines X-ASSIST and X-ADVICE provide a sound foundation for the reliable security management of travels and business activities around the globe:

  • Use the intuitive X-ASSIST Risk Map to gain an overview of the security situation
  • Set up Favourites in the section X-ASSIST Global Events and receive automated alert e-mails on current security incidents
  • Register your travellers, expats and sites with the X-ASSIST Travel Monitor to ensure a 24/7 monitoring in real time
  • With our X-ADVICE products, receive answers to your specific questions regarding long-term strategic planning as well as immediate operative requirements and measures on the ground